Unplanned crude oil manufacturing outages for the Group of the Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) averaged 2.5 million bpd within the first half of 2019, the very best six-month common because the finish of 2015. EIA estimates that in June, Iran alone accounted for greater than 60% (1.7 million bpd) of all OPEC unplanned outages.
EIA differentiates amongst declines in manufacturing ensuing from unplanned manufacturing outages, everlasting losses of manufacturing capability, and voluntary manufacturing cutbacks for OPEC members. Solely the primary of these classes is included within the historic unplanned manufacturing outage estimates that EIA publishes in its month-to-month Quick-Time period Vitality Outlook (STEO).
Unplanned manufacturing outages embrace, however aren’t restricted to, sanctions, armed conflicts, political disputes, labor actions, pure disasters, and unplanned upkeep. Unplanned outages might be short-lived or final for quite a few years, however so long as the manufacturing capability just isn’t misplaced, EIA tracks these disruptions as outages somewhat than misplaced capability.